An article titled “A Perfect Storm Brewing for European ccTLDs” has been published on CircleID. Authored by Patrick Myles, a data analyst and researcher at the Council of European National TLD Registries (CENTR), and founder and director of Net Knowledge – an analytics firm collaborating with national domain registries in Asia-Pacific and Latin America – the piece highlights alarming trends affecting European country code top level domains (ccTLDs).
Registration rates for these domains have reached historic lows in recent years, while deletion rates (or non-renewals) continue to rise steadily. Patrick Myles identifies several factors driving this trend. A significant portion of previous growth stemmed from pandemic-era quarantine restrictions during COVID-19, when small and medium-sized businesses shifted operations online and actively registered domains for websites. However, with restrictions lifted, many businesses now see little value in maintaining their sites, preferring offline operations.
Compounding the issue, registries have yet to fully grasp this shift, and their pricing strategies exacerbate the problem. Since late 2022, the cost of new registrations in European ccTLDs has dropped by 14 percent (approximately €1.50), but this has failed to boost registration numbers, as business demand for domain new names remains weak. Meanwhile, registration renewal fees have risen by roughly 18 percent during the same period, prompting registrants to abandon renewals even if previously hesitant.
Another significant factor highlighted by the author is the transformation of online search behavior driven by artificial intelligence (AI) tools. Users are increasingly turning to AI-powered chatbots or voice assistants for information, which provide direct answers to queries. This significantly diminishes the role of traditional search engines, thereby negatively impacting the popularity of websites and their advertising revenue. All of this also contributes to a decline in domain name registrations.
Finally, there are simply too many generic top-level domains (gTLDs) available today – and even more are set to emerge next year. On the one hand, this allows users to register their domain in a new gTLD under far more favorable terms rather than in a national domain zone. On the other hand, it undermines the foundation of so-called defensive registrations. This term refers to the practice of brand owners registering domain names matching their brand names across all domain zones. Now, this practice has become too costly, and brand owners are abandoning mass defensive registrations, limiting themselves to just a few domain zones critical to their business.
According to Patrick Myles, all of this contributes to the formation of a “perfect storm” that could threaten the national domains of European countries. However, the author remains cautiously optimistic about the future. He believes that achieving high growth rates for mature gTLDs is unlikely at present, but a small yet steady growth rate is a realistic goal. To achieve this, European national domain registries should primarily encourage more active use of domain names: as is well known, domains hosting websites with extensive and regularly updated content consistently demonstrate the highest renewal rates year after year. Additionally, pricing policies should be aligned with the current market situation. This, along with more active collaboration with registrars and CENTR, will help European national domains strengthen their ecosystems and navigate this challenging period without significant losses.
