In recent months, ccTLDs have remained the leaders in domain growth. It has been reported that they added 2.5 million registrations in Q1 2019 compared with December last year and 10 million - compared with Q1 2018 (though these numbers are somewhat more modest - 1.4 million and 7.8 million, respectively, without the .tk, names that are registered free and are never deleted). But the performance of ccTLDs could deteriorate significantly by the end of this year.
The current growth rates were due to a single domain zone – Taiwan’s ccTLD .tw. From March last year to March this year, it added more than 5 million registrations. Also, it gained 1.2 million registrations for Q1 2019. Discounts and promotions promoted the rapid growth. Domain Incite reports that in August-September last year, the TWNIC that operates .tw, reduced the price of the annual price for registration of a domain name to about $1.50. The usual price is about $30, so this was basically a 95 percent discount. However, this wasn’t the only reason. During the same period, the Asian Games were held (a major sports competition held in Asia every four years). And one of the largest Taiwanese registries announced that anyone would be able to register domain names in .tw for free on any day a Taiwanese athlete won a gold medal. For the record, Taiwanese athletes won 12 gold medals.
Both promotions led to rapid growth in registrations in the domain zone (most of the names were registered by citizens and companies from China). However, typically, a sharp increase in registrations is followed by a sharp drop. Names that are registered for free or almost for free are often not claimed, and the registration is not subsequently renewed. A domain zone can lose up to 90 percent of the names registered during a promotion. TWNIC CEO Kenny Huang admitted that the registry expects a decline in 4Q. This reduction will likely have a noticeable effect on the results of all ccTLDs.
