“If your mental model of the domain industry was built any time before this year, it’s already outdated” – this is the striking opening line of an analytical piece published on the NamePros blog, a leading professional forum for domain investors. The article’s authors aim to assess the current landscape of the domain market.
At first glance, everything seems unchanged: .COM remains the undeniable frontrunner, domains continue to serve as digital addresses, and debates persist about whether new gTLDs will ever achieve true significance. Yet beneath this familiar surface, substantial changes are unfolding. Regulatory approaches are evolving, a new source of demand for domains has emerged, and renewal statistics are prompting a fundamentally different perspective on the success of new gTLDs.
On April 30, 2026, ICANN opened the application window for the next round of the new gTLD program, which will close on August 12. This marks the first such round since 2012. The application fee is set at $227,000, and the first new domains are expected to be delegated to the root zone in the second quarter of 2028. However, this new round is notably distinct from the previous one.
In 2012, ICANN received an unprecedented volume of applications and ultimately delegated over 1,200 new top-level domains. Many of these subsequently encountered significant issues related to domain name abuse. This time around, the requirements are appreciably more stringent. The final version of the Applicant Guidebook, released on April 24, specifies stricter policies for countering DNS abuse, mandates for accurate registration data, and increased accountability for registry operators.
In short, technical and financial capabilities alone are no longer sufficient. Prospective operators must now demonstrate their ability to safeguard their namespaces against abuse. For domain investors, this indicates that the next wave of gTLDs will likely exhibit higher quality, albeit with fewer options and a slower rollout. A repeat of the 2012 registration boom – when vast numbers of low-cost domains were bulk-registered for speculative resale – appears improbable.
Another crucial factor unexpectedly transforming the domain market is artificial intelligence. Just a year ago, the term “vibe-coding” was virtually unknown to most. Today, it represents a market valued at roughly $4.7 billion. The concept is straightforward: a user describes in plain language the type of website, application, or service they want, and AI generates a functional product. No programming expertise is required. Platforms such as Cursor, Bolt, and v0 empower solo developers and small teams to launch new internet ventures at an unprecedented pace.
The impact on the domain industry has been substantial. Practically every such project requires a domain name. Industry research indicates that, in 2025, AI-driven development accounted for 66 percent of new domain registrations. In 2026, this trend is only accelerating. Consequently, the typical domain buyer is evolving. Increasingly, the new customer is someone with no prior domain investment experience. They are not seeking an exact-match domain for a popular keyword, nor do they necessarily grasp a domain’s SEO value.
What these buyers need is a short, memorable, and easily pronounceable name that can become a brand. As a result, demand is steadily shifting towards short, brandable names – often across multiple extensions at once.
The rationale here is clear. If a startup wishes to call itself “Bright,” acquiring Bright.com is virtually impossible. Within a new extension, the chances of securing a suitable name are much higher. New gTLDs, therefore, offer what .COM can no longer provide: the availability of desirable names. According to a survey of startups, 54 percent of respondents use a new gTLD as their primary domain. Their domain-to-brand match rate is 85 percent, compared to only 54 percent for .COM.
However, this advantage comes with its drawbacks: diminished market trust, reduced liquidity, and a significantly higher risk of domain abandonment after the inaugural year. The renewal rate for .COM and .NET domains is approximately 75 percent, while for ccTLDs, it exceeds 80 percent. For new gTLDs, the renewal figure stands at roughly 32 percent. In effect, about two-thirds of new registrations are allowed to expire after just one year.
That is precisely why experienced domain investors view reports of record registration volumes in new zones with caution. Millions of registered domains do not equate to millions of committed users. If a large proportion of those registrations are not renewed after a year, the impressive headline quickly becomes a statistical illusion. True value resides in domains that people are willing to renew year after year.
Where does this leave us? In 2026, the domain industry is becoming both more dynamic and more polarized. On the one hand, ICANN is preparing to introduce a new set of extensions, which – if the requirements are any indication – will be more sophisticated and better shielded from abuse than their predecessors. On the other hand, AI is creating a wholly new class of domain buyers. Individuals with no previous connection to the domain industry can now launch fully functional internet projects in just hours. And that means they will require names for these projects.
Simultaneously, renewal statistics serve as a stark reminder: sheer registration numbers offer little insight into the genuine value of a top-level domain. Ultimately, the market still centers on a deceptively simple question: Would someone trust this address at first glance? If the answer is yes, that domain has a future. For now, this principle best explains .COM’s enduring dominance over even its most numerous rivals. The industry is evolving rapidly, yet the essential question remains unchanged.
